LONGSHOT LEDGER
Circa Survivor · 2026 · Private Updated Wed, Sep 16 · 10:37 AM PT
Week 2 · Locks Saturday, Sep 19

Week 2: all five entries still standing.

One team to win outright each week, each team usable once, ties lose. A 25,017-entry, $25,017,000 winner-take-most pool — and a model that published its season targets before kickoff. This page is the running scoreboard of how those predictions hold up.

5 / 5
Our entries alive
16,978
of 24,999 field entries still alive
$25.0M
Prize pool
0%
Chance of a quiet season — massacre weeks are coming

This week

Week 2 — picks shown before Saturday's lock. Spectators only, play nice.

The field walks into a crowded trade

About 43% of the field is projected on the 49ers at home against the Dolphins, 88% favorites. That's a strong pick with a very crowded exit.

Our five entries split across three doors: Buccaneers ×3, Chargers, Ravens.

Pre-registered prediction №2: 43.1% of the field picks the 49ers this week. Graded the moment Circa publishes the official Week 2 pick report.

Where the field is going

Model-projected share of all 25,017 entries, week 2
Our picks
Rest of the field
SF
43.1%
TB
OURS ×3
13.9%
BAL
OURS
12.8%
LAC
OURS
7.8%
LA
5.4%
PHI
4.7%
KC
3.2%

Our entries

Four run by the model. One decided by the group chat — same scoreboard, no mercy.
DOC BROWN 1
LIVE
Week pick
LAC · 73% to win
Teams burned: DET
DOC BROWN 2
LIVE
Week pick
TB · 77% to win
Teams burned: JAX
DOC BROWN 3
LIVE
Week pick
BAL · 78% to win
Teams burned: JAX
DOC BROWN 4
LIVE
Week pick
TB · 77% to win
Teams burned: PHI
MCMAHON & RODGERS
LIVEGROUP-DECIDED
Week pick
TB · vote closes Sat
Model suggests TB — the group has the wheel

Season outlook

What the simulator sees from here — thousands of full-season runs, refreshed three times a week.
How this likely ends
~6 entries
out of 25,017 are expected to split the pot when the music stops. That's the game: outlast 25,011 strangers.
Model average across simulated seasons; the swing is enormous by design.

Danger weeks, called in advance

Where the model says the field gets hurt — judge us on these in December
WEEK 5
The Patriots trap. The model projects 53% of the surviving field onto one team — with a 22% chance that team loses. That's how thousands of entries die in one afternoon.
THANKSGIVING
Short menu, forced hands. A restricted holiday slate with everyone's best teams already spent; the model has 28% of the field massing on the Rams. First of two holiday choke points.
CHRISTMAS
The season's biggest crash risk. By Christmas the menus are thin — 57% of the field funnels onto the Bears, and the model gives that favorite a 36% chance of losing. A coin flip carrying a huge slice of the pool.

The machine's record

The scorecard we asked to be judged on — four targets, pre-registered before leg 1, graded all season even after our entries die.
Crowd prediction error
0.97%
Target: ≤ 2.65% · 1 week graded
Our survival vs the field
+32.1 pp
Ours 100%, field 68% over 1 week — target: beat the field
Danger weeks called
3 flagged
Week 5, Thanksgiving & Christmas — called before kickoff
Operations
100%
Every snapshot on time, zero missed locks since go-live